July 16, 2004

ACNIS Releases Public Opinion Results on Economic Growth

Yerevan—The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) issued today the results of a public survey on “The Trends of Economic Growth in Armenia,” which it conducted between June 20 and July 12 in Yerevan and all of Armenia’s regions. The announcement and accompanying analysis were made during a roundtable discussion at ACNIS headquarters which considered the attitude of Armenian citizens toward Armenia’s controversial “economic miracle.”

ACNIS director of administration Karapet Kalenchian greeted the invited guests and public participants with opening remarks. “These deliberations, as well as the survey preceding them, aim to evaluate public perceptions of economic growth in Armenia, to draw a true picture of its impact on the budget of Armenian families, and to determine the factors obstructing and those promoting economic development in the Republic,” Kalenchian said.

ACNIS legal and political affairs analyst Stepan Safarian presented “The Aims, Methodology, and Results of the Survey,” focusing in detail on the findings of the public opinion polls. Accordingly, 55.7% of the surveyed citizens assert that the reported economic growth in Armenia has not had any impact on their family budget, 36.5% say it has had a small positive impact, and only 7.5% are completely satisfied with it.

It is noteworthy that 33.5% state that their family budget has increased owing to their and their relatives’ employment in Armenia, 16.4% to their employment abroad or money sent by their relatives living abroad, and only 4.2% to improvement of the general economic situation and living standards in Armenia, and 45% assert that their family budget has not increased at all.

In response to a question on whether the Armenian authorities pursue an economic policy supporting the development of enterprise and investments, 22.8% of respondents give positive answers, 48.4% are of the opposite opinion, while 28.6% find it difficult to answer.

19.5% of citizens point to the clan system as the main obstacle to economic growth in Armenia, 32.9% mark corruption and patronage, 16.5% the moral-psychological atmosphere within society, 6.4% tax and customs bureaucracy, 4.2% the unresolved status of the Karabagh issue, 4.3% Armenia’s closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and 1.7% interference by external forces.

26.4% think that the prerequisite for surmounting the obstacles to economic growth in Armenia is the formation of a new administration, 12.8% improvement of the atmosphere for investments, 16.5% encouragement and development of small and medium-sized enterprises, 22.6% operation of large industrial enterprises, and 12.3% the ensuring of Armenia’s active participation in regional economic programs.

54% of respondent citizens believe that Russia most promotes the economic development of Armenia, 12% think it is the United States, 2% France, 1.5% Iran, while 13.3% hold that none of them do and 13.8% find it difficult to answer.

Most of the respondents, 35.3%, are convinced that Armenia should have the closest economic relations with all countries, 32.6% with CIS member-states, 13.9% with European Union member-states, 7% with the countries of the region (Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran), and 2.7% countries of the American continent, particularly the United States and Canada.

The role of the Diaspora in the economic development of Armenia is highly valued by 25.8% of citizens, 44% view it as important, 23.1% think it plays a small role, and 6.6% find it plays no role at all.

According to 20.3% of citizens surveyed, in the event of maintaining the present pace of economic development Armenia will become a prosperous country in the next 10 years, 30% expect this in the next 25 years and 16.5% in the next 100 years, whereas 25.1% assert that Armenia will never become a prosperous country under the circumstances.

In the next 10 years 20.3% In the next 25 years 29.9% In the next 100 years 16.5% Never 25.1% Other 7.5%   Difficult to answer In the next 15, 20, 50, 500 years It is already a prosperous country Did not answer 0.7%

ACNIS economic and diaspora affairs analyst Hovsep Khurshudian offered a comment on the poll results, referring to their most compelling indices. “We may deduce from many of the answers that the public is not satisfied with the pronouncements of the authorities about unprecedented economic growth in Armenia as, even if true, it does not bear a positive impact on all society,” underlined Khurshudian.

The formal presentations were followed by contributions by Yerevan State University professors Haik Sargsian and Gagik Galstian; Supreme Council Deputy Club chairman Samvel Tonoyan; director Gagik Makarian of the “Haiconsult” firm; editor Haroutiun Khachatrian of Noyan Tapan Highlights; Yulia Kuleshova of “Delovoy Express” weekly; Vaghtang Siradeghian of Transparency International Armenia; Yerevan State Linguistic University professor Hrach Tatevian; Stepan Mantarlian of “Armaveni” consulting company; and several others.

37.9% of all respondents hail from Yerevan, and 62.1% are from outside the capital city. 38.7% of them are male, and 60.8% female; 7.3% are 20 years of age or below, 25.2% 21-30, 20.5% 31-40, 21.5% 41-50, 12.1% 51-60, 8.4% 61-70, and 6.1% 71 or above. 41.8% of the citizens surveyed have received higher education, whereas 9.7% have incomplete higher, 19.1% specialized secondary, 24.9% secondary, and 4.1% incomplete secondary training. 41.3% are actively employed, 10.4% pensioners and welfare recipients, 7.1% students, and 40.6% unemployed. According to their income 62.9% consider themselves middle class, 27.8% poor, and 5.5% extremely poor, 0.6% rich, 2.7% well off. Urban residents constitute 67.5% of the citizens surveyed, while rural residents make up 32.5%.

Founded in 1994 by Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K. Hovannisian, and supported by the Lincy Foundation and a global network of contributors, ACNIS serves as a link between innovative scholarship and the public policy challenges facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the post-Soviet world. It also aspires to be a catalyst for creative, strategic thinking and a wider understanding of the new global environment. In 2004, the Center focuses primarily on public outreach, civic education, and applied research on critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.

For further information on the Center and its activities, call (37410) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; e-mail root@acnis.am or info@acnis.am