What has happened in the Russian Federation is "Deja vu" for us, that is, a repetition of a familiar situation that happened in Armenia in the past. During 2016 Yerevan hostage crisis a group of armed men calling themselves the Daredevils of Sassoun took over the Patrol-Guard Service Regiment of the Erebuni district police station in Yerevan. The attackers used nationalist and patriotic rhetoric, talking about a strong group of supporters in the Armed Forces who were ready to join their "revolt." They justified their action with growing corruption in the army, as well as territorial losses threatening Artsakh.
Russian mercenaries from the “Wagner” group also explained their "rebellion" by way of the corruption in the Ministry of Defense, the incompetence of the "asphalt" generals, due to whom Russian soldiers were shedding their blood in Ukraine, while the Ministry of Defense was disseminating false data and hiding the real situation, human and territorial losses on the front, etc.
There are many similarities, but let's focus on one in particular - the social discontent in the public and the lack of effective governance. In 2016, the main figures of the government in Armenia were the people, and now in the Russian Federation, they are the people whose political and economic advancement began in the 1990s, when the state wealth was plundered, pervasive illegalities were committed, destroyed, plundered, or industrial enterprises were privatized with pennies.
Against this backdrop, the public did not recognize the legitimacy of the distributed property, demanding justice, which sounded in a war situation in 2016 in Armenia, and now in Russia. The capture of the Patrol-Guard Service Regiment in 2016, like the "Wagner" uprising in Russia, is a warning for profound changes.
In 2016, Serzh Sargsyan did not embark upon systemic changes. He just appointed a new prime minister, and the composition of the government underwent cosmetic changes. Sargsyan did not allow profound changes; moreover, he promised not seek re-election in 2018, but later broke his promise. The result was tragic - the populists from the street collapsed the country and put us in front of an existential crisis.
A similar process has taken place in Russia. Will Putin repeat Serzh Sargsyan's mistakes, or will they still have the will and capacity to make profound changes in the administrative system, create a new personnel anchor, take steps towards a fairer society, getting rid of the generation of the 1990s?
The alternative, as mentioned above, are cosmetic changes, which, in essence, will lead to the same result that we had in the case of Serzh Sargsyan, that is, Russia will face existential problems. And its collapse will undoubtedly bring the world to the brink of a great collapse, with highly unpredictable negative consequences for Armenia.