Armenia’s international partners have repeatedly raised the alarm, and representatives of the ruling political force, the Civil Contract party, tacitly acknowledge that harsh winters, possibly even famine, await Armenia in the coming years. Armenia must be prepared for this disaster—the winter of our discontent. But what exactly is happening? Are they terrorizing the people? Is this a provocation or some kind of bad joke? In any case, people bewildered and perplexed are struggling to navigate the situation, unsure of what to do. Many are anxious, as winter is fast approaching, and the bitter memories of the "cold and dark" times feel all too close and real.

What, then, is the problem? Broadly speaking, it can be viewed through two lenses: economic and political, or rather geopolitical. Economically, the issue lies in Armenia's energy sector, which is in poor shape. Politically, it involves the interests of global powers, particularly Russia and the Collective West. This is a case where weak and incompetent actors are sacrificed in the great game of the world's superpowers—and Armenia is one of those nations.

The incompetent energy policies of the incumbent government have led to a noticeable decline in the sector, evidenced by frequent power outages across the country. The person occupying the post of the prime minister of Armenia has already begun discussing the necessity of a modular nuclear power plant, which has undergone recent testing globally, bowing to pressure from the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance to close the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). "We need a modular NPP that will not be seen as a threat to either Armenia or its neighboring countries," he says.

So, the question arises: are Armenia’s international partners, through the Civil Contract party, forcing us into cold winters due to the failures of Armenia’s energy reforms, or is there some other hidden demand? For example, is the goal in the South Caucasus to neutralize Russia’s influence—the country that supplies Armenia with extremely cheap and reliable gas, fulfills 90% of Armenia's grain needs, and supports tens of thousands of Armenian families through remittances from migrant workers?

For the West, however, these considerations are minor. They are willing to trample over small, poor Armenia in pursuit of their larger goals. The gas pipeline that supplies Armenia could easily be blown up by Azerbaijan in the section passing through its territory—a country that already has a notorious track record, having used such tactics against Artsakh. For ten months, Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on 120,000 Armenians in Artsakh, subjected them to ethnic cleansing, and most notably, did so without facing any consequences.

Armenia endured cold, dark, and hungry winters in the not-so-distant 1990s. But back then, we understood the reasons for our hardship. Most people stayed and fought for Artsakh, for freedom, and for independence, despite the fact that hundreds of thousands emigrated, unable to bear the difficulties. Today, however, it’s unclear why we are preparing for a repeat of that experience. Is it, after all, for the benefit of the Turkic world?

In any case, the motivation to emigrate seems stronger now, and the challenges more relentless. The greatest of these challenges, let’s admit it, is Nikol Pashinyan with his Civil Contract party club.