As the date of the parliamentary elections scheduled for this coming June draws nearer, panic is growing within the ruling Civil Contract party, while Nikol Pashinyan’s approval rating continues to fall. All polls published so far show that only 18–20 percent of the public are ready to vote for him. A U.S.-funded International Republican Institute (IRI) survey, for instance, reports record-low trust in Pashinyan, with a majority of respondents saying Armenia is on the wrong track. Support for the ruling Civil Contract party, once hailed as “the herald of a new era,” has dwindled to approximately 17 percent, according to a recent nationwide IRI survey.

Public optimism has declined even further over the past few months: no progress, and a massive vacuum of trust in the political landscape. Never before has society’s attitude toward the Civil Contract-led ruling system been so harsh and indifferent, often even openly aggressive.

With Armenia’s pivotal year of elections looming ahead in 4 months, the Republic of Armenia finds itself at a historic precipice. The question now is whether there are any ways to save the situation. The authorities face two main options. The first is to resort to large-scale electoral fraud or simply to “draw the numbers.” This is also the most dangerous path, as it could lead to uncontrollable consequences. Armenia’s second president, now the leader of the largest opposition force, warned of this during one of his previous press conferences: “In the case of blatant interference, the authorities must be prepared for revolutionary developments,” Kocharyan stated.

The second option is the so-called strategy of playing on public disillusionment. If the authorities succeed in finally “breaking” people’s faith in elections and ensuring the lowest possible voter turnout, say, no more than 40 percent, then Pashinyan’s actual 20 percent support could effectively translate into 50 percent of participating voters. However, this scenario is also difficult to implement, since several opposition groups remain active in the political arena and are working to mobilize the public and increase turnout.

Such a pre-election situation represents a dead end for the authorities, further fueling panic and sporadic bouts of nervous tension within Civil Contract. Representatives of the ruling team understand well that they themselves bear responsibility for the current state of affairs, particularly the leader of their narrow inner circle, around whom an atmosphere of silent dissatisfaction has begun to take shape. Some officials are resigning voluntarily, while others are being quietly removed. The names of the first “victims” are already known: targeted by the Civil Contract and the press are Hayk Sargsyan (nicknamed “the bottle holder”), whose name has been removed from Civil Contract’s proportional list; Hripsime Hunanyan, who has resigned as chair of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Health Care; and others.

Pashinyan appears to find no respite from his obsession with re-election. There seems to be no spectacle too undignified for his position: from cycling races and showcasing his mediocre culinary hobbies to organizing dance parties, discos, and flash mobs. In these performances, he dances, celebrates, beats drums, sings his self-authored song “Real Armenia,” and even forces ministers to dance along. One is left with the impression that this man has neither lost the 44-day war, with its thousands of dead and disabled, nor lost Artsakh, leaving 150,000 compatriots homeless and dispossessed, nor driven Armenia itself into a shattered and hopeless state.

These actions are ostensibly aimed at young people, but not in any sense of atoning for the catastrophic consequences of incompetent governance or for an entire generation’s unlived lives. In reality, Pashinyan’s outreach to youth is far more pragmatic. Opinion polls from last year showed that his lowest approval ratings are precisely among young people aged 18–35. Accordingly, within the framework of the pre-election campaign, he is now doing everything possible to win the favor of this demographic and draw them to his side. And yet some still claim that the Civil Contract elite is ignorant and does not understand what it is doing.

“Hayatsk Yerevanits” Journal