The South Caucasus region, which for centuries has been a key arena of bloody military clashes for competing empires and regional players Russia, Turkey and Iran, seeking power and influence, seems to turn into another arena of emerging intense confrontation. The military and political situation in the region has been significantly aggravated, the main evidence of which is the large accumulation of armed forces, weapons and ammunition in some border areas of Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Contrary to loud speculations and the rhetoric of peace, the possibility of war in the region is becoming more and more evident. Azerbaijan has massed its armed forces and military buildup along its border with Artsakh and Syunik, Iran - its border with Azerbaijan, and Turkey - its border with Iran. Such preparations do not speak of peace at all. If we add to this the geopolitical upheavals, we will have a complete picture.

There might be peace in the South Caucasus, should there be a balance of forces and interests among the major players: Iran, Russia and Turkey. In other words, the issue of war and peace heavily depends on the presence or absence of a balance of powers among this historical trio. The "3+3" format, which was talked about a lot at one time, was aimed at creating such a balance, however, no practical steps were taken.

That format, in principle, considers the 4th party entering the region as a factor disturbing the balance of power which may increase the probability of war. Moreover, if the 4th power is brought to the region by one of the three countries of the South Caucasus (for example, Armenia, which invited an EU observation mission to the region in October 2022), the big neighboring countries - Russia, Turkey and Iran -may consider it as an enemy, accordingly with devastating consequences. Now it is the West that, in fact, plays that role in an undeclared war with Russia and Iran.

One might wonder why the other three are so sensitive to the 4th party. The point is that the 4th has no vital interests here - it is simply trying to break the balance of power, i.e. to provoke a war. In other words, the 4th power has no vital interests in our zone but is here for temporary dividends.

Georgia was once punished for this in 2008, and Azerbaijan might be punished for the same reason one day. However, why is Armenia making such an attempt, in a situation where the security of its southern border is currently ensured by Iranian military units, and the security of Artsakh is guarded by Russian troops - peacekeepers, and not EU observers? Today, the ruling Civil Contract Party, led by a notorious person, has in fact closed the channels of dialogue with the Russian leadership. Mutual insults no longer fit into the diplomatic code of conduct, this kind of speech is characteristic of opponents.

Iran is sensitive in the matter of its borders in the Caucasian region and will counter any attempt to change them. Iranian president scolded the notorious person months ago for crossing the "red line" of his country by bringing Iran's enemy, extra-regional forces, into the region. A few days ago, an unprecedented thing happened: Erdogan had a phone conversation with the notorious person, the content of which was presented very vaguely, apparently, there is something to hide. In any case, it is a fact that Erdogan is becoming a mediator between Armenia and Russia, and more precisely, a regional policeman.

This means a lot, but most notably, Turkey should have a say in the formation of the government of Armenia. naturally, after consulting with Aliyev. Turkey, a member of NATO, actually becomes the guardian of Armenia, and Armenia itself becomes a dangerous neighbor provoking a new war in the region for the other members of the possible "3+3" format.