We need to comprehend several historical and geopolitical regularities to have a thorough understanding of what is happening between the two major players - Iran and Turkey - in our region. Basically, history repeats itself on the one hand due to the collapse of the USSR at the end of the last century, and on the other hand, due to the war in Ukraine and, as a result, the weakening of Russia.
It is after the establishment of the Safavid dynasty, one of Iran's most significant ruling dynasties reigning from 1501 that modern-day Iran or Persia emerged. Since then, there have been about a dozen major wars between the Ottomans and the Safavids, not counting smaller confrontations. What was the motive for those wars? Basically, the reason was geopolitical, that is, there was a struggle for control of strategic territories and commercial communications of modern-day Iraq and the South Caucasus.
Ideological conflict also played an important role. The ideological foundation of Ottoman Turkey was Sunni Islam, the largest branch of Islam, and the country was built on its principles. The Sultan was also the caliph, the spiritual leader of all Muslims. In order to build its power on the basis of ideology, Iran chose Shiism, the opposing ideology, and each of them had their followers - the "5th column” in the territory of the other. Therefore, they were also a threat to each other, both in terms of ideology and security.
The last major Ottoman–Persian War of 1821–1823 was fought between the Ottoman Empire and Qajar Iran from 1821 to 1823. Here is the most interesting thing. After 1828, when Russia occupied the South Caucasus, the desire for war between the Ottomans and the Persians faded. The third force solved the problem of “the apple of discord,” the cause of dispute and a certain balance was established in the South Caucasus.
There are numerous examples in history when the appearance of a third player qualitatively changed the situation. Now let us come to today's events and see what is happening. An exiled government of South Azerbaijan was established in Turkey, Iran is forming a movement to annex Nakhichevan, and military exercises are underway on both sides.
This is due to the weakening of Russia, as a result of which, it seems, the struggle for the South Caucasus, which was stopped after the Persian-Ottoman war of 1821-1823, is resuming. The conflict between Iran and Turkey has also resumed in Iraq and Syria. They are interrelated conflicts. On Turkey's side, the West is now acting against Iran and Russia, and the struggle, as we understand, is unfolding for North-South and East-West communications.
According to the "realpolitik" theory, any country, becoming stronger, threatens the existence of another until it meets the resistance of the opposite party. Due to the weakening of Russia, Iran is resisting Turkey. We must clearly understand that Azerbaijan and Turkey will advance to the territory of Armenia until they meet resistance. And then we will be supported by those countries that are concerned about the expansionism of Turkey and Azerbaijan.