Tuesday, 26 November 2024

E Editorial

The thorny issue of Afghanistan: What does it promise to our region?

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The most important event in the world today is the hasty withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan (some believe their escape). Numerous expert circles already predict the beginning of the end of the American era of global domination. It is clear that the world "Policeman" cannot back down from backward tribes, but if that is happening, then something serious is being changed.  And what is being changed and what consequences can it have on the world order? This is the main topic of discussion for leading theorists.

If the number one superpower on the planet begins to give way, new candidates for the vacant space will appear, and we will enter a multipolar world order. It is similar to the situation created before the First and Second World Wars, when the candidates for the leadership of Europe at that time were involved in the bloodiest wars. It is still difficult to predict whether there will be Third World War or the new contenders for the lead, will however manage to mutually agree on the new rules of the game.

The main arena of interests and maybe also of military conflict of the countries with ambitions of new superpowers is supposed to be not Europe, but first of all the Greater Middle East and Greater Asia, where Armenia is also found. Our country is a crossroads in terms of potential strategic communications.

This is not a theoretical issue for Armenia, the second war in Artsakh was the first signal of such developments, when an international coalition was at war with Armenia, each of which had its contribution -  one in the form of direct or expert participation, the other in the form of arms supply, the third in the form of providing a diplomatic roof, and so on. We must learn that lesson by drawing appropriate conclusions from it, which, unfortunately, has not been done yet.

In the event of a possible major conflict, who will be our allies and who will be our enemies, what will the confrontation look like, who will be directly involved in it and who will be able to remain a neutral country, who will suffer losses and who will gain achievements? Perhaps these are the most important issues at the moment, which should become the key topics of public and political discourse.

And one thing is for sure, Russia, Turkey, Iran will be in the list of the main players (this list can be continued), and we are in the focus of the intersection of the mentioned three. Will we lose or win will depend on our correct calculations and correct positioning.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

Yerznkian 75, 0033
Yerevan, Armenia

Tel.:

+374 10 528780 / 274818

Website:

www.acnis.am

  

The views of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of the Center.

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