Tuesday, 26 November 2024

E Editorial

Artsakh war opened "Pandora's box"

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The current rearrangements in the South Caucasus have created a new situation in our region, which might have a crucial impact on the future of the region from the Middle East to Central Asia. It is obvious that the OSCE Minsk Group did not reflect the list of countries with highest interests in the Artsakh issue. It turns out that in addition to Russia, Turkey and Iran, which were not included in the above list, have also become key players. The situation has changed after the war, Russia and Turkey have taken the roles of playing the first "violins", and Iran, which declares its own rights, has deployed its troops closer to the borders of Azerbaijan.

The situation in the region reminds a boiling cauldron. There are many who have apply to participate in the "settlement" of the problem. Georgia has offered Armenia and Azerbaijan to create a new format in Tbilisi, while Turkey has previously offered the "3 + 3" format, including the three countries of the South Caucasus and Russia, Turkey and Iran. Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are holding trilateral talks in Moscow, and the neglected members of the Minsk Group, the United States and France, are trying to revive the Minsk Group format in an attempt to secure their presence in the ongoing evolvement.

However, the above mentioned is not a complete list of all players. Currently, the struggle in the South Caucasus is mainly over the format of negotiations. The stakes are high - creation of communications or its obstruction, scheme of new geopolitical arrangements, even a possible regional war, and so on.

It is strange at first glance that the Turkish President and Foreign Minister publicly refuse to meet with their Armenian counterparts, thus demonstrating that they have nothing to say to Armenia, as the fate of Armenia is decided without the latter's participation. It is clear that they are negotiating with Russia, because, according to them, Armenia is not the entity

What is happening is very similar to the situation two centuries ago, when a hot war was being waged in the Caucasus between Persia and the Ottoman Empire, during which Russia joined the war and took over the Caucasus. Now everything seems to be returning "to its circle". Along with the weakening of Russia, a new struggle for the Caucasus resumed, and the 44-day Artsakh war opened "Pandora's Box".

This struggle may again turn into wars, and the stakes are high, especially since the problem for the three countries does not imply only conquering, but also a means of defending territorial integrity: suggesting the Kurdish problem in Turkey, the Azeris and Kurds in Iran, and about 20 million Muslims in Russia, most of whom are Turks. Taking over the South Caucasus for each of the country implies a guarantee of preserving the integrity of its own territory, and they all have led to the issue of Artsakh.

What should Armenia do in this situation? The problem is not only in the domain of the state, but also in the political organizations that aspire for big policies. It is their duty to convey to the public their vision of Armenia's future, the concept of development and security strategy, the draft roadmap, the list of possible allies, and attempt to get public approval. This is the most important of Armenia's internal and external challenges today.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

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Yerevan, Armenia

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The views of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of the Center.

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