Monday, 25 November 2024

E Editorial

Why did Pashinyan hastily leave for Iran?

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Immediately after the Moscow meeting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia left for Iran. It is clear that such coincidences do not occur. Taking into account the quality of the Russian-Iranian cooperation, which is deepening more and more, acquiring a strategic nature, it is possible to conclude from that visit that Moscow and Tehran are conducting a coordinated policy in the South Caucasus.

The South Caucasus is of strategic importance for Russia, Turkey and Iran - the three major countries in the region, a region where the interests of these countries not only collide. At the same time, it provides an opportunity for interrelated interests, up to the point of preserving their territorial integrity.

If we look at the history of the last few centuries, it will be clear that this area has always been the scene of terrible wars. The exception was, perhaps, the peaceful Soviet years, when a stable "status quo" was established in the region. Now it has been broken again, and we are again entering a period of competition, which may also be accompanied by wars, as we saw in 2020.

Without going into the details about the importance of the Caucasus for these countries, let us briefly note that the increasingly active separatist sentiments of the Azerbaijanis of Iran threaten the territorial integrity of that country, which also poses a serious threat to Russia. The problem is that Azerbaijan, passing completely under the control of Turkey, can generate manifestations of separatism among the Muslim population of the North Caucasus.

Control over the Caucasus is understandably very important for Turkey, given the factor of the Kurds concentrated in its South and East. By strengthening its positions in the Caucasus, Turkey, in the face of  the Muslims of the North Caucasus, will get all the necessary tools to curb Kurdish separatism.

Now let's try to understand the geopolitical arrangement created in the South Caucasus region. With the document called "Shushi Declaration", as is known, Turkey undertook the commitment to preserve the security of Azerbaijan, which increased the latter's appetite and, in particular, its ambitions to conduct a aggressive foreign policy against Armenia, especially, in the conditions of the current situation, when due to some failures on the Ukrainian front, Russia's "plate is full".

Thus, there is an urgent need to keep Turkey in check, to form a new balance of power in the South Caucasus, and in this context, Armenia-Iran relations acquire a strategic character to counterbalance the Azerbaijan-Turkey tandem.

This is the strategic importance of Pashinyan's visit to Iran, which has started to worry the West or, more precisely, the United States, which is pursuing a policy of isolating Russia and Iran.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

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