The events in the South Caucasus region since 2018, including Azerbaijan’s 44-day war against Artsakh, were largely influenced by communication issues. Russia, facing challenges like bypassing sanctions and the need for strategic connections (such as the gas pipeline, etc.), sought to enhance ties with Turkey. Additionally, Russia aimed to establish a route through Azerbaijan to connect with Iran and the Persian Gulf.

However, there was a cost, and it was addressed through Azerbaijan’s invasion of Artsakh. The resolution might have been less painful for Armenians if the previous government of the Republic of Armenia had been less fearful and the current one more committed to national interests. The previous administration had the chance to navigate the issue toward a more favorable outcome, considering global shifts, but hesitated for fear of public backlash, as its legitimacy rested solely on the Artsakh victory.

Now, turning to the present circumstances, as previously noted, Azerbaijan's cost for Artsakh involves the Russia-Iran railway—a crucial link for Moscow and Tehran. However, the United States is against it. Washington prioritizes sea-based cargo transportation, as it allows for control and reinforces its economic, financial, and geopolitical influence, while land routes pose a challenge to this dominance.

Therefore, in the course of Azerbaijan’s 44-day war against Artsakh, the West inadvertently provided significant opportunities for Russia and Iran by backing Azerbaijan. The West's support, aimed at pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus (including war authorization, weapon supply, diplomatic cover, intelligence sharing, and the transfer of terrorists), unintentionally or automatically garnered Russia's approval for the war waged by Azerbaijan.

Amidst this geopolitical upheaval, Aliyev finds himself in a tight spot – caught between a rock and a hard place, balancing between Russia and Iran on one side and the USA and the West on the other. His only option now is to bide his time until "the storm subsides," as all parties involved need to make their positions clear. Making a wrong move as a debtor could result in a significant blow from any side, considering the delicate balance.

Aliyev faces a crucial decision: whether to commit to constructing the Russia-Iran railway, effectively making Azerbaijan beholden to the influence of those nations, or to align with the West, which is owed for the weapons procured, substantial Western investments in Baku, intelligence structures, and more. In an attempt to buy time, the Azerbaijani “sultan” is preparing for the upcoming extraordinary elections set for February 7, 2024, providing him with a seemingly justifiable reason to delay making a definitive choice.

He anticipates that within that timeframe, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be temporarily halted, and there will be specific agreements reached in the USA-Russia format, shedding light on the situation.